Record high inflation and negative economic growth, as measured by US GDP growth, have fueled recession fears. The bond market is similarly flashing recessionary signals. Despite this, the S&P 500 through Friday, August 5, 2022, has rallied 13% higher than its June 16 bear market low[i], making the current environment a head-scratcher for many.
The debate over whether or not we are in a recession and whether the latest rally is sustainable will surely continue. Recessions and the markets are always hard to predict but the current environment is confusing. There are so many opinions and conflicting data sets that it’s difficult to have clarity today, let alone predict the future.
Perhaps the one thing investors can take solace in knowing is that economic and market expansions last far longer than recessions and bear markets. Investors have generally been rewarded for their time in the market versus timing the market.
For more in-depth information - click on the following link: Confused About the Economy? It's OK.
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